[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 17

Sat, 26 Apr 2003 11:00:01 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 261500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT APR 26 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED REACHES 125 MPH WINDS...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
CONFIRM... 

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM ST.
LUCIA NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO THE BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER
TODAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY ALSO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
875 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH SUNDAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR
..WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE EYE OF
WILFRED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONFIRM THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY
ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 52.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

AVILA

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/261500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/261500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise