[FLARES] **ECOMM**

[Chris Myers]

Indian River County ACS is at Level One Alert as of 12:00 hours =
Thursday, September 19, 2002.

Level One Alert:   Computer Models Indicate A Possible Threat To Our =
Operation Area.  Continue Monitoring Closely.

EVENT INFORMATION:=20
** RELEASE INFORMATION FROM IRCEOC**


Hurricane Hunter aircraft have finished their investigation of Isidore =
and will be back in the system around 2:00pm, this afternoon.  They have =
found, and satellite imagery confirms, a well structured eye wall is =
forming around the center.  The current winds are near 70mph.  Isidore =
will become a hurricane later today (winds over 75mph) as the =
intensification process continues.  Of particular concern for our area =
is the expanding wind field on the east side.  The current tropical =
storm force wind field on the east is 140 miles from the center.   This =
will continue to expand as the system intensifies.  No watches or =
warnings are in effect for the United States, however advisories may be =
issued for the Keys later today.
=20
There has been a lot of talk today about the system moving more west and =
not affecting Florida.  While things may be looking better with the =
forecast today, the track will continue to be modified and everyone =
should monitor this system closely.  The current models all suggest a =
continued west-northwest movement for the next 3 days.  After 48-72 =
hours, this system may stall in the southeast Gulf of Mexico as a trough =
passes over the northern Gulf.  Because of this, the expanded model runs =
for 5 days show numerous possible tracks ranging from northern Mexico to =
Cedar Key/Jacksonville, Florida.  How close the system gets to the =
Florida peninsula and how large the wind field expands will determine =
the weather in our area.  There remains the possibility that Isidore =
could move over southwest Florida and cross the peninsula, however this =
is an unlikely scenario at this time.
=20
The attached satellite picture is the infrared picture showing a well =
developed tropical system and the red areas around the center indicates =
further intensification.  The attached WV-satellite picture is the water =
vapor picture indicating a weakening ridge (the dark area near Florida) =
in the Gulf.  The weakening ridge will allow Isidore to move a little =
faster by tomorrow.  The cloudy area located at the top of your screen =
(northern Texas) is the front that may stall Isidore this weekend.  =
Everyone needs to continue to monitor this system closely.
=20
Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management
** END OF RELEASE**

ARES/RACES:  ARES/RACES Staff Notification Complete
CAPCOMM-4:  No report
County Communication Team:  No report
MARS:  No report
SHARES:  No report
SKYWARN: Treasure Coast Skywarn Network on stand-by mode. NC. KA1VRF =
reporting over IRLP node 458 from CA. =20
REACT:  FLCRT at level 1 alert

COMMUNICATION DATA:
No Communication Nets are planed at this time.
=20
Florida State DCAT Equipment and Assets:
Unit ID                Status                  Location                  =
        Note                                            =20
COMM-1   Standing-By   Vero Beach,FL           =20
COMM-2   Standing-BY   Vero Beach,FL                  =20
APRS       Standing-By    Vero Beach,FL         =20

End of SITREP

Christopher A. Myers chris@wgylfm.com=20
1 Lt. CAP. Emergency Services Officer, TCCS FL-078=20
Communication Specialist, Central Florida DMAT/MST FL-6=20
Commander, Florida State DCAT/REACT/ARES/ACS=20
Emergency Coordinator, Indian River County ARES/RACES


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