[FARC] SFI over 120 for the ARRL CW DX Contest

[Dan Szymanski]

----- Original Message ----- 
Sent: Friday, February 18, 2011 8:50 PM
Subject:SFI over 120 for the ARRL CW DX Contest


> The first strong European 10 meter opening of Solar Cycle 24 occurred 
> today, with many signals way over S9.  This propagation might continue all 
> weekend.
>
> Here's the latest three day forecast:
>
> Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
> SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2011
>
> IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
> to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was high during the past 24 hours.
> Region 1158 (S19W64) produced several C-class events with a C1 at
> 17/2135Z that was associated with a Type II Sweep and an M1 event at
> 18/1303Z.  Region 1161 (N12W02) grew slightly in area and maintained
> a beta-gamma magnetic classification.  New Region 1162 (N18W06) was
> numbered today and developed rapidly into a Dai-type sunspot group
> with a beta-gamma magnetic classification.  The bulk of the activity
> originated from this new region, including two M1 events and an M6
> event at 18/1011Z.
>
> IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
> moderate with a chance for isolated high level activity for the next
> three days (19-21 February).
>
> IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
> The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
> storm period at high latitudes.  This activity was due to the
> effects of the CMEs associated with two M-class events and an
> X-class event observed from 13-15 February.  A sudden impulse of 33
> nT was observed at 18/0136Z at the Boulder magnetometer in
> association with this event. The ACE spacecraft indicated solar wind
> velocities increased to approximately 700 km/s along with a
> sustained period of southward Bz between -10 and -15 nT from
> 18/0200-0300Z.
>
> IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
> expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
> periods for day one (19 February) due to the residual effects of the
> recent CMEs.  Days two and three (20-21 February) are expected to be
> mostly quiet.
>
> III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
> Class M    75/75/75
> Class X    15/15/15
> Proton     10/10/10
> PCAF       Green
>
> IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
> Observed           18 Feb 125
> Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  120/120/110
> 90 Day Mean        18 Feb 086
>
> V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
> Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/002
> Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  018/022
> Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  010/012-005/005-005/005
>
> VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
> A.  Middle Latitudes
> Active                25/15/05
> Minor storm           10/05/01
> Major-severe storm    01/01/01
> B.  High Latitudes
> Active                25/20/05
> Minor storm           10/05/01
> Major-severe storm    01/01/01
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