[ETS/PARC List] "SERA announces Digital Voice Repeater bandplans" update

[Drew Moore]

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	"SERA announces Digital Voice Repeater bandplans" update
Date: 	Mon, 25 Feb 2008 15:23:20 -0500
From: 	marvin bronstein <marvbrons at verizon.net>
To: 	drumor at optonline.net



Drew,
Here is a posting from QRZ.com on the subject of digital VHF/UHF development
that will be of interest to all.
WA6ITF is very well known.

Marvin



http://forums.qrz.com/showthread.php?p=1144929#post1144929
> Posted by: wa6itf
> On: 02-24-2008 04:34 PM
>
> After reading all thats been posted itd kind of obvious that many of you
are confusing the present with the future.  As the guy who has been
chronicling in print the development of ham radio repeaters since backi in
the 1960's, please permit me too give a bit of insight into what is
happening in regard to the digitalization of our hobby, and especially to
VHF/UHF relay communications.
>
> 1:  The radio gear you bought last week or last year is not going to
become obsolete overnight.  However, the digitalization of the entire
hobby -- including VHF/UHF relay operations will happen as an "evolutionary
process" not a revolutionary one.  Think in terms of a decade or two -- not
a year or two.
>
> 2:  The only reason that D-Star is the likely successor to analog FM is
because it is the only major player.  Yes, there is APCO P25.  And yes there
is Alinco using TV.32 digital audio protocol.  And yes, there are
individuals out there trying to developing their own.  But none of these
have any real usership base in ham radio because there are no relatively
inexpensive, off the shelf gear that a ham can buy, take home, power up and
operate.
>
> 3:  There are four recognized major sources of ham radio gear for VHF/UHF
use.  These are Alinco, Icom, Kenwood and Yaesu (Vertex-Standard /
Motorola).  So, lets take a quick look at what each is offering to the ham
public as a digital or digital interconnect radio:
>
> * Alinco:  It has a plug in board for most of its radios that uses TV.32
CODEC technology.  Digital generated in the radio. No repeaters or
associated gear and nobody else supporting this protocol.  All radios are
backward compatable and operate analog FM
>
> * Icom:  A full line of D-Star and D-Star upgradeable user radios plus
D-Star repeaters and everything needed to link.  Icom also hosts networking
and linking servers.  Digital generated in the radio.  All radios are
backward compatible to analog FM operation.
>
> * Kenwood:  The company seems to have a D-Star radio as seen on some
websites, but has steadfastly refused to introduce it outside of the
domestic market in Japan.  World-wide it appears to be placing its digital
future on analog FM radios that provide Echolink Sysop mode rather than
bringing a true digital radio to the marketplace.  All radios are,
obviously, upscale analog FM sets and therefore backward compatible.
>
> * Yaesu:  For several years it has been placing its digital future on a
company developed Internet repeater linking system it calls WIRES II.  A
quick look at how the WIRES II system works reveals that its analog user
radios to a repeater that ties to a Yaesu interface and then to the
Internet.  Not all that different from Echolink.  Again, all radios are
analog FM so they are compatible with all other manufacturers.
>
> So, discounting that minority of experimenters playing with converted
commercial P25 radio gear, the point of commonality for communications among
todays VHF/UHF hams is good old analog FM.  And while D-Star is likely to
keep growing, it is not going to replace FM for quite a while.  This could
change if Alinco, Kenwood and Yaesu jump into the D-Star camp, but knowing
the lead time needed to develop an equipment line, it would not happen
overnight.  Think "evolution" rather than "revolution."
>
> 4:  Taking a closer look at both D-Star from Icom and TV.32 from Alinco.
Note that both are also full feature analog FM.  While the advertising may
say that this makes them backward compatible, from a business point of view
its called hedging ones bets.  In other words, if hams had shown no interest
in digital audio at this time, they would not be stuck with an inventory of
non-salable equipment.  While manufacturers want to develop and sell all of
us the 'latest and greatest' they do not want to alienate their customer
base with equipment that cannot communicate with those hams who have older
gear or other brands.  Once again think "evolution" rather than
"revolution."
>
> 5:  Be it D-Star, TV.32. P25, or what have you:  Digital voice will not be
a true player in the world of Amateur Radio until all of those supplying us
our gear decide on a single protocol.  At this point in time, with each
manufacturer going in divergent directions from all the others this does not
seem likely to happen anytime soon.  If for no other reason than the
operational mindset of each of the companies and others that might decide to
enter the digital voice ham radio race.  Until he "Big-4" sit down at a
table and choose one protocol, its going to remain a horse race with Icom
leading the pack and the rest not even interested in playing catch up.
>
> 6:  Timeline:  Well I do not own a crystal ball so I can only give an
educated guess.  Based on whats happening in radio sales and requests for
coordination of digital repeaters, a trend toward conversion to digital is
starting to take root.  But just like the old days when the first repeaters
were AM rather than FM (yes -- the first repeaters of the lste 1950' and
early 1960's were AM because all operation was AM) when the conversion from
AM to FM began it did not happen overnight.  The fact is that the last AM
repeater in the country -- WA6TDD -- which was both simultaneous AM and
FM -- did not drop the AM portion of its operation until 1973.  Thats about
12 years after it came on the air.  On HF, the shift from AM to SSB also
took close to a decade.  Again, mainly because hams had an investment in AM
that they did not want to loose.  In both cases, it was as older AM gear
died that most hams bought their first SSB or FM rigs -- not because the
millionaire ham across town !
>  had the newest, latest and greatest.  And I suspect that the same will be
the case as we move from analog to digital.  It will happen, but not
overnight.  "Evolutionary" change not "revolutionary" change -- unless other
mitigating factors enter:
>
> 7: What are those other factors?  Only two and I do not see either as
really  plausible.  First, the FCC cloud decree to us, as they did to TV
broadcasters, that by a certain date we must all be digital.  The chances of
this happening are little to none.  Sure the bureaucrats in government want
to see all wireless in digital format for reasons few can understand, but
its not likely that they will be ordering hobbyists to go digital just to
placate a government desire.
>
> The other variable is the equipment supply industry.  If they were to
settle on a single digital standard and stop including analog FM, then all
bets would be off.  But there is no way in the foreseeable future that this
is going to happen.
>
> As noted, in #3 above, the so-called "Big-4" are moving in divergent
directions with only 2 of the 4 supplying radios that generate a digital
signal in the radio.  While there is always the possibility of Alinco,
Kenwood and Yaesu joining the D-Star camp, it does not seem very likely at
this point in time.  Nor is there any other communications giant sitting on
the sidelines waiting to jump in.  In reality, ham radio is a rather
specialized portion of the consumer electronics marketplace and is saturated
with the four major (and numerous minor) supply lines that it has.  So while
anything is "possible" its not very "probable."
>
> 8:  To wrap it all up:  I would not look for analog FM on VHF/UHF (nor SSB
voice on HF) to start to disappear anytime soon.  You may notice more such
operation in 5 years but more likely a decade will go by before you one day
say to yourself: "...hmmm.  Whatever happened to the WA9??? repeater that
used to be on 146.01/.61?  All I hear now is noise."  And thats the time
that most hams will be looking to buy their first digital radio and by then
they will likely cost a lot less than they do today.
>
> I hope this puts it all into proper perspective for you.  And once again
remember that change in ham radio is rarely revolutionary.  More often than
not it is evolutionary.  It rarely happens overnight and even when it does
there will always be those who operate the legacy modes left behind because
this is a part of the tradition of our hobby.
>
> de
> WA6ITF
>
>
> All the best,
> QRZ Forums
>
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