[Elecraft] Sunspots!?!?

[Rich NE1EE]

On 2020-11-26 20:30:-0700, Robert Cunnings wrote:
><https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1775-new-research-suggests-solar-cycle-25-could-be-strongest-in-50-years/>
>The article has a link to the paper, it's worth reading.Bob NW8L

I am partly through this paper. What may not be obvious at a glance are the statistics and math that underlie the analysis. I may as well be in for a penny, in for a pound. I had thought before reading this paper that there is a good reason to think that the sunspot activity will approach 250, +- a really big window. This is only slightly higher than McIntosh's 233. I think that I disagree with his model, but agree with his math and his conclusions. I encourage anyone who has an interest here to read the various papers. They will not be casual reading.

I have had many successes and failures over the years. One thing that seems to put me in a smaller class of physicists is that I don't mind being wrong. I am passionate and enthusiastic about my beliefs, and ready to change them immediately upon seeing proof that I am wrong. A while back I was pursuing a particular math approach to finding (mumble, mumble, space plasma physics), and one of the senior PhDs said that "some really f*** smart people" had developed another approach, and I'd better spend my time understanding what they did, rather than go off in a different direction. My math later replaced that alternate approach. You need not think that this implies that I am any brighter than any one here, but that it points to a closed mindedness that really surprises me in the scientific community. One of my friends is fond of saying that he thinks I am bright enough to have 2 brains...one the size of a BB, and other just a tiny thing ;-) I appreciate the humor. We can also be found in public venues declaring to one another (wink, wink) that we are so smart that our IQs are not just in the 90s, they are in the /high/ 90s ;-)  I have seen many insights come from folks with the equivalent of HS diplomas, and don't place much stock on the "paper" I have filed somewhere. That's why it's not on my wall.

At any rate, we will all hold our breaths. Even if Cycle 25 is a banner cycle, my rotating-spinning-toroid sun model may not be correct. I can live with that ;-) And the cycles are good cycles-bad cycles, because what might be good for hams will certainly be cause for concern for those operating satellites and orbiting people containers. Now back to our regularly scheduled entertainment...

~R~
72/73 de Rich NE1EE
The Dusty Key
On the banks of the Piscataqua