[Elecraft] K4 effect on Used Gear Market

[Dauer, Edward]

Thanks to all who are providing more info about the K4.  Certainly whets the appetite.

What the K4 does to the value of used K3 s, however, is highly speculative at this point.  For one thing, their second-hand value will vary with how soon, if at all, Elecraft stops producing them, and there is no way even to guess about that without knowing all of the company's internal cost functions as well as sales projections.  But speculating is fun to do so I'll add one variable of my own:  The K4 may depress the value of whatever rigs many of us now have as backups under our K3.  That's what I plan to sell, keeping the K3 as a backup (if I buy a K4.)   But I have no idea what those rigs are in other shacks -- in many cases the station may be two K3 s deep now.  But for others, which of the other two rigs to sell may depend on how easy it is to swap transceivers on the fly -- i.e., if a K4 fails at a bad time can I just take it off the table, put a K3 in its place, plug in existing connectors without needing adapters or other changes, and continue running QSOs?  If so, some used K3 s may not be entering the market quite so fast.

So yes, the relative value of used K3 s will very likely decline, inevitably so when there's additional competition.  Though even that could depend partly on unpredictable changes in both demand (new hams entering the market) and supply (other radios made by other manufacturers becoming available at nearby price points.) But by how much will their value change relative to what would have happened in a non-K4 world?  At this point, that calculation -- including this post -- has so many unknowns it's more in the realm of SWAG than analysis.  Which doesn't mean it's not fun to do.    

Ted, KN1CBR