[Elecraft] Reaching Across the Chronological Divide

[Fred Jensen]

It has been noted that 83.295% of people make up their own statistics.  
Thus encouraged ...

The 2018 ARRL Annual Report says that 2018 ended with 156,899 members, 
and the somewhat-difficult-to-read little graph indicates that it fell 
for 11 of the 12 months.  2017 began at about 163,000 and fell to about 
159,500 again in 11 of the 12 months [graph isn't well quantified].  It 
has been falling for a long time, and 170,000 is not an all-time high.

More significant is the fraction of total licensees who are ARRL members 
[similar to market share for a business], a number that has been 
steadily dropping for some time and is somewhere in the mid-teens 
today.  It is heavily weighted toward older Extra class hams.  ARRL took 
a huge membership hit in the later 60's when its Incentive Licensing 
proposal was adopted by the FCC and General class licensee's lost big 
chunks of their spectrum.  It's been pretty much downhill ever since.

The absolute number of US licensed amateurs has trended upward over the 
years, but the fraction of the US population who are hams bounces around 
0.2% - 0.3% [it's about 0.23% right now].  I've been "in" Dayton during 
Hamvention several times, sadly at WPAFB working and not at Hara or 
Xenia, so I can't speak to attendance, but in principle, as the 
population rises, the absolute number of hams rises, and it's reasonable 
to expect attendance at large famous events to rise also.

Wayne began this thread for very good reasons.  The vast majority of new 
hams are Technicians, most of them will remain Technicians, many will 
disappear, not many will ever operate an HF transceiver or dabble in EME 
or construction or satellites, not a lot know much about our National 
Organization, and fewer will find reason to join.  There is a very 
pronounced divide and finding ways to bridge it seems like a worthwhile 
endeavor.  Might also sell a few more Elecraft radios. [:=))

73,
Fred ["Skip"] K6DGW
Sparks NV DM09dn
Washoe County

On 12/23/2019 10:21 AM, KENT TRIMBLE wrote:
> Brethren . . .
>
> Keep in mind that while the hair gets grayer, attendance at Dayton was 
> at an all-time second high last May.
>
> According to the FCC, the number of American licensees is at an 
> all-time high.
>
> ARRL reports membership over 170,000, also an all-time high.
>
> When those three figures start falling it will be time for pessimism.  
> Until then, let's talk positive, act positive, and be positive.
>
> 73,
>
> Kent  K9ZTV