[Elecraft] My KX3 shipping calculation

[Don Wilhelm]

I hope it is a joke!  IMHO. it conveys the wrong message.

Did you ever hear of "ramp-up"?  Consider the following scenerio for the 
early days of shipping (even if the numbers are wrong).

One unit was shipped the first day, none the 2nd day because the second 
unit took 1.5 days, 4th day, another unit was shipped.  5th day one was 
shipped and another was half ready, so the 4th one shipped on the 6th 
day.  OK, the average so far is 2/3 of a unit per day.
Continue the same exercise, but project for a month, and they are now 
shipping 5 units per day - plus, part of that "ramp-up" time was 
training new people, so by the time the new people were fully on board, 
there is a capability of 9 units per day after 2 months (the actual 
number from the TJ spreadheet is 9.9 units per day based on a 7 day week 
- or about 14 per day based on a 5 day week.

It is not fair to average the first 2 months of shipping and attempt to 
project that average over the lifetime of the product.

Serial numbers count more than the averages given - in the first month, 
  the average was 44.1 units per week, while in June, the average is 
69.3 units per week.  Does that sound like an average over the entire 
period would be accurate?  I think the answer is clearly NO!

To date, there have been 498 known deliveries, and more to come soon, 
and the ship rate seems to be about 14 per day (5 day week), and 
Elecraft is projecting a 90 to 120 day delivery for current orders 
figures out to compute to 1400  pending orders right now (using the 
average time of 100 days to delivery) -- and that is making the 
assumption that the rate of 14 per day (in a 5 day week) will not 
increase.  The first 2 days of ordering yielded about 500 orders - that 
is phenomenal an average of 250 per day!

So bottom line -- if you have placed your order earlier, you will have 
less than 90 days to wait, and if you place your order now, you will 
receive delivery in 120 days or less.  Elecraft will not mislead you - 
the time of uncertainty about any problems along with the early training 
of line personnel has gone by and good projections can be made.

73,
Don W3FPR

On 6/22/2012 6:30 PM, dr.diesel wrote:
> Ok, this is kinda a joke, but with no info coming from Elecraft (and being
> asked, not to ask) I have nothing else to go with.
>
> Facts:
>
> The first KX3 shipped on March 29th
> Orders started Dec 27th
> Currently orders from Dec 29th are shipping, we'll assume all orders from
> the 29th have shipped.
>
> This ratio is for every 2 days of orders takes 2.5 Months to process, or
> 1.25 months per day.
>
> Since I ordered my KX3 on Jan 9th, it should arrive somewhere around August
> 2013.  Plenty of time for me to rethink and pre-order a K4 at Dayton next
> year!
>
>
>
> --
> View this message in context: http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/My-KX3-shipping-calculation-tp7557972.html
> Sent from the Elecraft mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
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