[Elecraft] OT predictions - "Daisy, Daisy..."

[N2EY at aol.com]

In a message dated 9/5/07 9:15:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time, k4vud at hotmail.com 
writes:


> Predictions for future:

I've seen this sort of thing since I was a kid reading Popular Science.

What you don't see is a recap of how wrong so many predictions turn out to 
be, and how few predictions turn out to be right. 

For example, it's only taken them 45 years to develop the flatscreen TVs that 
were "just around the corner" in  1965. And 1975, 1985... 

Where's my 400 MPH George Jetson flying car? It was supposed to be in 
showrooms 20 years ago!

The flip side of the coin is all the things that we take for granted today, 
yet which were never predicted at all.

> 1.  genetically modified animals will be sold as personal helpers.

We've had those for thousands of years - dogs, cats, horses.....

Not going to touch 2. and 3. - they're about politics
> 
> 4.  computers that u can easily talk to is the next big break thru in 
> electronics.
> 

Getting a computer to talk is relatively easy. Getting one to *listen* isn't, 
because of the variations in how people talk. Getting one to *understand* is 
even harder, because of the way most human language is so context-dependent. 

Don't hold your breath waiting for computers to be easy to talk to. Limited 
voice recognition is a reality now, but making the machine really understand 
you would require computers that pass the Turing test. 

Besides, it's hard enough talking to *people* and getting them to 
understand...

--

There's an old joke that someone actually developed simple, high quality 
voice recognition years ago, but lost all the work when a coworker yelled "FORMAT 
C:" over the cubicle wall.....

--

73 de Jim, N2EY

"Open the pod bay doors, Hal...."




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