[Elecraft] next solar cycle: article

[Stephen W. Kercel]

Joe:

I'd be very surprised if you'd need the MOAA to work 100 countries on 
80m. The K2 should handle it easily.

Comment on solar activity:

During my time at ORNL we were occasionally concerned with modeling 
the long term history of solar activity, and we noticed that the 
solar cycle is really a 22 year cycle rather than 11 years, with a 
fairly consistent pattern of a strong peak followed by a weaker 
second peak 11 years later.

I was active in the 1978-83 period, and worked through that solar 
maximum. I made 5BDXCC in 1981 (DX on 80m is workable during high 
flux), but I did not hear fellow hams telling war stories about their 
spectacular results, as they did, for example, in the late 50s or early 90s.

I was not active in the 90s, but I did notice that a lot of my ORNL 
buddies were telling war stories about their consistently spectacular 
DX on 10 meters in 1990-91.

In contrast, although a lot of people are wondering when we'll hit 
bottom and head back up the hill, I do not hear any pining for the 
halcyon days of the early 2000s. I suspect that the last peak was soso.

Thus, based on these anecdotal observations, I've been expecting big 
things for the next maximum.

Evidently, the SA article reflects relatively recent insights into 
the internal solar forces driving sunspot activity. This suggests a 
causally-based model of sunspot activity, rather than simply curve 
fitting and extrapolation of historic data, as most researchers have 
done in the past. I'll be very interested in how their model holds up.

73,

Steve Kercel
AA4AK
K2 S/N# 5383


At 09:46 PM 3/7/2006, Joseph Reed wrote:
>Wayne,
>
>   Thanks for a pointer to an interesting read.    I was too busy 
> with a divorce at the peak of the last cycle, but the previous one 
> was sure fun.  Since I like both HF and VHF/UHF weak signal this 
> cycle has great promise.  A good solar wind to energize, and the 
> odd explosion to make AU fun on 2 and higher.  The back end of the 
> cycle could be even more fun for those of us who enjoy the higher 
> bands ( ya just gotta love aurora).
>
>   But since I have K2 #5226 running good DX, I hope for a *very* 
> quiet solar minimum.  I'm counting on my K2 to finish my 80m DXCC 
> for my 5BDXCC.  And perhaps the MOAA (Mother of All Amplifiers) to 
> seal the deal.
>
>   Regards,
>
>   Joe N9JR
>
>   PS - Think about a transverter for 903MHz.  Instant sweetness.
>
>wayne burdick <n6kr at elecraft.com> wrote:
>   Just published on the Scientific American website is an article
>explaining what we might see in the next solar cycle. Very interesting
>reading. See:
>
>www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa007&articleID=000301B5-B8CD-140C-
>B8CD83414B7F0000
>
>73,
>Wayne
>N6KR
>
>---
>
>http://www.elecraft.com
>
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