[DX] DX conditions (Propagation)

[Tomas]

Due to the influence of an unexpected large coronal hole on the western side of
the Sun, the solar wind speed has been rather elevated, but looks to be
subsiding a bit.  The interplanetary magnetic field is mildly southwards causing
geomagnetic conditions ranging between unsettled and minor geomagnetic storm
levels.  Ap is now predicted to remain above 25 for the rest of the contest, and
Kp might reach level 7 tonight, but generally will be in the 3 to 5 range. 
Polar paths are rough.  High-latitude paths are fair to poor.  Low-latitude
paths should be good.

Flux levels are as expected, but lower frequency bands are experiencing
degradation, and higher frequency bands may continue to experience some
degradation over polar and high-latitude paths.  There is a chance of Aurora
tonight.

The sunspot group 99 (NOAA 0162) produced another M-flare yesterday and with its
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and strong magnetic fields, the
group remains capable of more powerful flares, which might cause Radio Blackouts
on the sunlight side of the Earth when and if such a flare occurs.

Hope the contest is going well.  I would like to hear reports from the field!



73 de Tomas, NW7US // AAR0JA
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