[DX] Urgent Update: CQ WW CW Propagation Update

[Tomas]

URGENT UPDATE

CQ WW CW Contest Weekend, by NW7US
(November 23-24, 2002)

The outlook for the CQ WW CW Contest is good.  While the first hours might be 
rough due to the Strong space weather conditions with geomagnetic storms 
reaching G3 level, space weather should settle down considerably by the end of 
day one of the contest. Overall, conditions will be favorable for high scoring, 
since propagation should be open over most paths on most HF bands for most of 
the contest weekend.  Polar paths should be poor on the first day, and fair to 
normal on the second day.  On both days, the 10.7cm Flux is expected to be 
around 150 (147 and 146), supporting a solid 20-meter operation, with 15, and 
sometimes 10, being good daylight bands.  The highest Ap figure expected is 37, 
with the highest Kp index expected being 4, on the first day of the contest.  
Space weather is expected to reach Active (storm) levels on the day before the 
contest, but should settle a bit by the middle of the weekend.  Region 198 
presents strong M-class potential until it rotates beyond the west limb on 29 
November.  There continues a chance of a category G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm 
on 23 November due to solar wind from a coronal hole.  A solar wind stream 
flowing from the indicated coronal hole is hitting the Earth's magnetic field at 
speeds greater than 600 km/s. This might trigger possible TE propagation on the 
last day of the contest.  Live details at http://prop.hfradio.org/ and 
http://wap.hfradio.org/ (for WAP phones).

Ap Forecast:
23 NOV 02 = 037
24 NOV 02 = 017

Kp Maximums Forecast:
23 NOV 02 = 4
24 NOV 02 = 3

10.7cm Forecast:
23 NOV 02 = 147
24 NOV 02 = 146

73 de Tomas, NW7US // AAR0JA
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