[Dx-qsl] QSL turn-around expectations

[Rod Elliott]

Friends...

Almost every day on this reflector we see posts like =85 "I mailed my card x=
=20
days ago and still don't have a reply / should I re-apply? / the manager's=
=20
a jerk / etc. etc."

This angst is sparked by our expectations about QSL turn-around time. Fear=
=20
kicks in as soon as we feel it's taking too long. Not a bad thing if our=20
expectations are realistic. However, there's a problem if the real-world=20
QSLing process is actually slower than we expect. Then, we needlessly=20
pester the managers, spend money on re-submissions, clutter up the=20
reflector with extra traffic, and give ourselves heartburn. Not pretty.

It would help if we had an objective benchmark for how long the process=20
really takes. But how do we get that? Being a statistician by trade, I=20
decided to bring some science to the question. Here are some preliminary=20
findings.

1. Multi-operator DXpeditions with managers whose only role is to do the=20
QSLs are extremely reliable at getting the cards out. In my sample of 48=20
such expeditions, there was a 100% return rate on first submissions.

2. However, not all these cards came back quickly. This is how long they=
 took:
	10% of replies received within	  31 days
	50%  "       "          "	"	112   "
	90%  "       "          "	"	257   "
	99%  "       "          "	"	417   "
         	These points give us a probability benchmark for real-world QSL=20
turn-around time. This 	should be useful for forecasting future QSLing=20
experience.

Interesting numbers. Think of VP6DI and PW=D8T. Despite earlier (premature?)=
=20
anxiety, close to 100% of cards for both operations are now out. Both Garth=
=20
and Steve got it done well within the 417-day time limit predicted by the=20
benchmark. In that sense, both these situations went exactly as we should=20
have expected. So, should we have worried? Only if we needed to hit the=20
Sept 30th DXCC submission date about 180 days after the operations. For=20
that time, the benchmark predicts only 70% of cards will be received. It=20
was reasonable for those who didn't have them to ask the managers for=20
special attention.

What about K1B? Well, it's now only 250 days since that operation. The=20
benchmark says that about 10% of cards should still be outstanding. It's=20
reasonable to keep the faith a while longer. Don't re-apply just yet unless=
=20
you're on the lost envelope list.

In general, when should one re-apply? Not until well after the 90% point=85=
=20
say 300 days at the earliest. When to write off? Not until the 99% point is=
=20
passed at 417 days.

OK, that's all for now. If there's enough interest, I'll publish similar=20
analyses for:
	Resident amateurs QSLed direct
	Resident amateurs with QSL managers
	Small DXpeditions where the ops do their own QSLing
Yes, they're all different.

For those who want info about the analysis, here are a few details:
	Sample: 150 first-time direct QSLs sent within 30 days of the operation=20
over a 5-year 		period from Jan 1 1997 through Dec 31 2001. At that time I=
=20
was building my 		DXCC mixed total from 250 to 330 entities.
	QSLs:	Plain-vanilla one-or two-color cards typeset and printed on my=20
home 		computer. All sent direct airmail in Bill Plum's nested envelopes=20
with one IRC 		or US sase, a very few with a small donation of $5 or less.=
=20
All envelopes 		addressed on my laser printer.	=09
	Analysis:  Probability plots of turnaround times generated on commercial=20
Weibull 		analysis software.
	Assumptions: 1. In the real world there exists a stable process that=20
determines the 		probability distribution of QSL turn-around times, and
		2. My experience is a representative sample of the results of that=
 process.

Hope this is of interest=85

73 and good luck QSLing
Rod Elliott  VE3IRF