[CTSARA] Fwd: [CT ARES Discussion] INFO: ECMWF & GFS long-range / partial coastal-storm correlation

[Jon Perelstein]

FYI - weather models beginning to agree that there may be some nasty
weather coming at us around Oct 10.

73
Jon, AI1V

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Eric Knight <eknight at remarkabletechnologies.com>
Date: Sat, Oct 1, 2016 at 9:48 PM
Subject: [CT ARES Discussion] INFO: ECMWF & GFS long-range / partial
coastal-storm correlation


Good evening, everyone.

A couple of days ago I mentioned the possibility of an intense coastal
storm in our general neighborhood.  Well, the latest computer models are a
little more attention-getting. Again, it’s a very long way away.  But I am
starting to see a convergence of the GFS and ECMWF.

Both models show an intense storm bombing out near us – 988mbar (GFS) on
10/10 @ 00 UTC -- AND -- 984mbar (ECMWF) on 10/10 @ 12 UTC.  That’s an
uncharacteristically tight correlation in pressure and time this far out.
And the track on those days / times is within about 200 miles.  The GFS
projects a spot-on track.  The ECMWF is about 200 miles offshore.
Historical accuracy of the ECMWF is superior to the GFS.  Regardless, the
general correlation is IMHO too close for zero interest. Given we’re
talking eight days away, it is just something to keep eye on (or, perhaps,
both eyes).

Here’s a link to side-by-side GFS / ECMWF weather-model output:
https://goo.gl/photos/X2hDKpQcVrYbVGSv8

As many of you know, I specialize in long-range weather forecasting (10 -
14 days), and have been doing such for ~ 15 years.  And I have been an
amateur meteorologist for 46 years.  The modeling tools that all
meteorologists now have at their disposal (including us amateur
meteorologists) are truly impressive.

Now, I don’t claim any special knowledge regarding this current weather
item.  I’m just providing the most-recent output of two of the world’s best
long-range weather models as an FYI.  Always rely on the NWS for
professional weather information.

73, Eric KB1EHE