[CoARES-D10] WX Outlook

[Mike Hickerson]

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND THEN
ONTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  DUE TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREAT BEING HAIL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS OF COLORADO IS KEEPING
MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE
CAUSE OF THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS LATER
TODAY.  THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY
AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IS STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN.  IF IT FORMS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
THE FLOW AROUND IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PULL THE MOISTURE AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  IF IT DEVELOPS
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL AS IN AREAS FURTHER EAST.  IF THIS
SCENARIO COMES TO PASS...A DENVER CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP IN THE DENVER
METRO AREA...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT A BIT
MORE IN THAT LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DUMPING DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME WHICH
COULD CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.