[CALV-AUXCOMM] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824

[Eric Christensen]

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...MD AND NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236...

VALID 052057Z - 052230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN PA...NJ AND EXTREME SERN NY.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS FROM ERN PA THROUGH NRN MD IS
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. SOME LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED. A FEW DISCRETE CELLS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
LINE. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG OVER SERN PA INTO NJ TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG FARTHER SOUTH INTO VA. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG /40-45 KT/ EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...BUT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
REMAIN SMALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AN EXCEPTION IS IN VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN NJ WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO SELY.
THOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 06/05/2016


ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   40877389 40007401 38927484 38197670 38477771 39357612
            40177573 40667515 41297474 40877389
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