[CALV-AUXCOMM] [New post] Severe weather possible today

Sun Jun 5 09:54:32 EDT 2016

Post       : Severe weather possible today
URL        : https://auxcomm.k3cal.org/2016/06/05/severe-weather-possible-today/
Posted     : June 5, 2016 at 9:54 am
Author     : Eric Christensen
Categories : ALERT, ARES, Weather

https://auxcomm.k3cal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/day1otlk_1300-1.gif

There is an enhanced risk ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/Outlook-category-descriptions.png )  of severe weather over Calvert County today with the highest risk being tornadoes (5% probability of a tornado) and severe winds (30% probability of severe thunderstorm winds or winds in excess of 50kts).  Most of this severe weather is expected beginning around 2PM (EDT) and ending around 10PM (EDT).
Action Plan
No activation at this time.  We'll go into a standby alert if the county goes under a watch and will escalate as necessary.

All stations should monitor the 146.985MHz repeater ( http://k3cal.org/repeaters-and-nets/146-985/ )  and NOAA Weather Radio ( http://www.weather.gov/lwx/nwr )  to the maximum extent as possible this afternoon and evening.  Severe weather reports can be sent to SKYWARN ( http://www.weather.gov/lwx/skywarn )  net control on 145.350MHz if active, on our AUXCOMM net, or by calling 1-800-253-7091.

Please have your spotter number available when you make these reports!
Immediate Requests
If you are available for Net Control duties please let Eric know ASAP.
Forms
051342Z Jun 2016 ICS-205 Communications Plan ( https://auxcomm.k3cal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/051342Z_Jun_2016-ICS-205_Communications_Plan.pdf )
Convective Outlook
From the Storm Prediction Center ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ )  in Norman, Oklahoma:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ TO NC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM NEW YORK TO GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTH
CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND REACH WESTERN QUEBEC BY EARLY MONDAY...AS AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
IN THE SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DAMPEN AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CA/NV.

...EASTERN STATES...
STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD
QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...REACHING THE COASTAL
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASINGLY COMMON AS FAR NORTH AS NY/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

WHILE RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY BE IN
PLACE...EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY FEATURES RELATIVELY
PREVALENT CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES NOTED IN REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS. THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN SO...POCKETS OF STRONG
INSOLATION AND A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFYING/INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF MID-LEVEL /700-500 MB/
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...30-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED AND RELATIVELY
FAST-MOVING STORMS.

A FEW INITIAL SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...BUT AN AMPLE DEGREE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH A TENDENCY FOR VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL/LINEARLY BANDED
CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
INITIAL OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

(edited to remove non-pertinent information)

..GUYER/DEAN.. 06/05/2016
Hazardous Weather Outlook
From the Weather Forecast Office in Sterling, Virginia ( http://www.weather.gov/lwx ) :
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-061315-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
911 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS.

OVER THE WATERS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$

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