[CALV-ARES] [New post] Severe weather expected on Sunday

[Calvert County Auxiliary Communications Services]

Post       : Severe weather expected on Sunday
URL        : https://auxcomm.k3cal.org/2016/06/03/severe-weather-expected-on-sunday/
Posted     : June 3, 2016 at 11:45 am
Author     : Eric Christensen
Categories : Weather

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ The Storm Prediction Center is expecting an enhanced risk ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/Outlook-category-descriptions.png )  of severe weather on Sunday, 5 June.  It's still too early to determine the exact risks for these storms but everyone should make their stations ready for the potential for severe weather.  I'll be providing an update on this situation tomorrow (Saturday) morning.
Convective Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN VA...ERN
NC...THE DELMARVA...FAR SERN PA AND NJ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL PA TO NEW YORK CITY
AND SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATES
EXCLUDING NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN NEW YORK.

...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY
NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING ACROSS
SRN ONTARIO. A WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE
LOW...ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL NY INTO PA AND SWWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. WITH STRENGTHENING SLY SFC
FLOW...MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR N
AS ERN PA AND NJ...SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN AMPLE LIFT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COUNTERACT RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND YIELD AROUND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. MEAN FLOW OF 40-50 KT IN THE 850-500 LAYER WITH
INCREASING SPEED SHEAR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LONG
HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. GRADUALLY VEERING 850 MB FLOW AND THE ABSENCE OF A
SURGING COLD FRONT SUGGEST SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE
DURING THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS MERGING OF CELLS LATER IN THE EVENING
AS STORMS EXIT THE COAST. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NERN GULF COAST INTO SWRN GA...
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN GA/AL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. EARLY RAIN
AND STORMS MAY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION...BUT POCKETS OF HEATING
SHOULD YIELD NEW DEVELOPMENT OR A REJUVENATION OF EXISTING ACTIVITY
FROM GA INTO AL AND INTO NRN FL DURING THE DAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 06/03/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/KWNSPTSDY3_201606030730.txt )  PRODUCT
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-041345-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
944 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

-- 


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