[CALV-ARES] [New post] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153

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Post       : MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
URL        : https://ares.k3cal.org/2015/03/26/mesoscale-discussion-0153/
Posted     : March 26, 2015 at 6:50 pm
Author     : Eric Christensen
Tags       : Mesoscale Discussion
Categories : Weather

https://ares.k3cal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/mcd0153.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...DC...CNTRL/NRN MD...THROUGH SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262212Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
FROM NRN VA...NRN MD INTO SERN PA THROUGH ABOUT 01Z. THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN PA SWWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL NJ WWD INTO ECNTRL PA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. WARM
SECTOR IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE DIABATIC WARMING
OF THE SFC LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN PA INTO
NRN VA AS THIS BOUNDARY INTERCEPTS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/26/2015

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