[Boatanchors] Bands may be dead this weekend

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>From NY Times...

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A Severe Solar Storm Is Hitting Earth’s Atmosphere, and Auroras May Be Visible

Officials warned of potential blackouts or interference with
navigation and communication systems this weekend, as well as northern
lights as far south as Northern California or Alabama.

By Katrina Miller and Judson Jones

Katrina Miller reports on space and astronomy and Judson Jones is a
meteorologist.

May 10, 2024Updated 3:27 p.m. ET

Dramatic blasts of particles from the surface of the sun have prompted
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to issue a severe
geomagnetic storm warning.

As nuclear reactions occur on the sun, it routinely expels material
from its surface. This type of space weather is what creates auroras,
also known as the northern and southern lights, depending on the
hemisphere in which you live. During the current geomagnetic storm,
the aurora or northern lights may extend as far south as Northern
California or Alabama.

But when the sun’s activity increases, the emissions it sends through
the solar system can affect satellites orbiting close to Earth as well
as infrastructure on the ground, leading to disruptions in navigation
systems, radio communications and even the power grid.

The latest eruptions were first observed early on Wednesday morning,
with at least five heading in the direction of Earth. The ejected
material is anticipated to reach the planet’s atmosphere by Friday
afternoon or evening. Effects could continue through the weekend.

“What we’re expecting over the next couple of days should be more
significant than what we’ve seen, certainly so far,” Mike Bettwy, the
operations chief at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, said at a
news conference on Friday morning.

How strong is the current geomagnetic storm?

Giant explosions on the surface of the sun, known as coronal mass
ejections, send streams of energetic particles into space. But the sun
is large, and such outbursts may not cross our planet as it travels
around the star. But when these particles create a disturbance in
Earth’s magnetic field, it is known as a geomagnetic storm.

NOAA classifies these storms on a “G” scale of 1 to 5, with G1 being
minor and G5 being extreme. The most extreme storms can cause
widespread blackouts and damage to infrastructure on Earth. Satellites
may also have trouble orienting themselves or sending or receiving
information during these events.

The current storm is classified as G4, or “severe.” It is caused by a
cluster of sunspots — dark, cool regions on the solar surface — that
is about 16 times the diameter of Earth. The cluster is flaring and
ejecting material every six to 12 hours, with the most recent activity
occurring around 3 a.m. Eastern time on Friday.

“We anticipate that we’re going to get one shock after another through
the weekend,” said Brent Gordon, chief of the space weather services
branch at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will the G4 storm affect people on Earth?

Unlike tornado watches and warnings, the target audience for NOAA’s
announcements is not the public.

“For most people here on planet Earth, they won’t have to do
anything,” said Rob Steenburgh, a space scientist at NOAA’s Space
Weather Prediction Center.

Instead, a geomagnetic storm watch or warning indicates that space
weather may affect critical infrastructure on or orbiting near Earth.
It may introduce additional current into systems, which could damage
pipelines, railroad tracks and power lines.

The goal of the announcements is to give agencies and companies that
operate this infrastructure time to put protection measures in place
to mitigate any effects.

“If everything is working like it should, the grid will be stable and
they’ll be able to go about their daily lives,” Mr. Steenburgh said.

Will I be able to see an aurora?

It is possible that the northern lights may grace the skies over
places that don’t usually see them this weekend. Your best bet to see
them is in a place outside the bright lights of cities.

But Friday night could pose weather struggles in some places. The
Northeast is likely to be blanketed in clouds.

There is a chance the skies may cooperate in the Midwest, but the hour
would be closer to sunrise on Saturday. A storm system will be moving
through the region, and if it swings through, there will be clear
skies behind the storms. Your ability to catch a view will depend on
your location and the exact timing of the storm system.

If the aurora reaches as far south as Alabama, which can happen with a
G4 storm, night skies will be relatively clear in northern Alabama and
Georgia. Areas in the southern Plains and Rockies might have
relatively poor viewing conditions.

Farther west, the coastal states will remain relatively cloud-free,
which could provide good viewing conditions. There may be high-level
clouds in the mountains of Washington, but there is still a chance of
clear skies.

If you are in a clear area, even well south of where the aurora is
forecast to take place, snap a picture or record a video with your
cellphone. The sensor on the camera is more sensitive to the
wavelengths produced by the aurora and may produce an image you can't
see with the naked eye.

Another opportunity could be viewing sunspots during the daytime, if
your skies are clear. As always, do not look directly at the sun
without protection. But if you still have your eclipse glasses lying
around from the April 8 event, you may try to use them to try to spot
the cluster of sunspots causing the activity.

Why is this happening now?

The sun’s activity ebbs and flows on an 11-year cycle, and right now,
it is approaching a solar maximum. Three other severe geomagnetic
storms have been observed so far in the current activity cycle, which
began in December 2019, but none were predicted to cause effects
strong enough on Earth to warrant a watch or warning announcement.

The cluster of sunspots generating the current storm is the largest
seen in this solar cycle, NOAA officials said. They added that the
activity in this cycle has outperformed initial predictions.

More flares and expulsions from this cluster are expected, but because
of the sun’s rotation the cluster will be oriented in a position less
likely to affect Earth. In the coming weeks, the sunspots may appear
again on the left side of the sun, but it is difficult for scientists
to predict whether this will cause another bout of activity.

“Usually, these don’t come around packing as much of a punch as they
did originally,” said Shawn Dahl, a forecaster at NOAA’s Space Weather
Prediction Center. “But time will tell on that.”

Katrina Miller is a science reporting fellow for The Times. She
recently earned her Ph.D. in particle physics from the University of
Chicago. More about Katrina Miller

Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who
forecasts and covers extreme weather. More about Judson Jones