[ARRL-OK] FW: [CentralOKARES] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[D C Macdonald]

----Original Message Follows----
From: "Matthew Engelbrecht" <Matthew.Engelbrecht at ci.edmond.ok.us>
To: <CentralOKARES at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [CentralOKARES] Hazardous Weather Outlook
Date: Tue, 05 Apr 2005 08:32:29 -0500

000
FLUS44 KOUN 051247 AAA
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051700-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA...TO
SHAWNEE...TO HENNESSEY...TO FAIRVIEW...TO SHATTUCK.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND VEGETATION. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
LOW WILL PUSH A DRY LINE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...TO A POSITION FROM NEAR MEDFORD...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO
ARDMORE BY 1 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON... FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
ADA AND LAKE TEXOMA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THESE STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGER
THAN GOLFBALLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS AREA...BUT VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO AROUND
QUARTER SIZE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS...AND AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES
IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BY AROUND MID EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APR 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
               NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE NEXT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

$$

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT www.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN.

UPDATED 1 PM DRYLINE LOCATION...
24

Disclaimer:  While this E-mail is the property of the City of Edmond, 
Oklahoma, the views and opinions expressed herein are the sender’s and may 
not reflect the official position of the City of Edmond.

City of Edmond, Oklahoma
P.O. Box 2970  Edmond, Oklahoma  73083  405-348-8830