[ARRL-OK] Update on BPL

[Eddie Manley]

Hi everyone ..... here is an article that gives up some information on 
the status of BPL.   Please use it as you can to help 'decision makers' 
avoid some mistakes that others have had to find out the hard way.
Thanks -- OK ASM - Governmental Affairs  Liaison
K5EMS - Eddie - 73
===============================================
www.virchowkrause.com
Virchow, Krause & Company, LLP
=====================================================
Broadband Over Power-Line a Mid-Term Grade

by: Carol Arneson, Senior Manager, csarneson at virchowkrause.com and
Robert Herbst, Senior Manager, rherbst at virchowkrause.com

Broadband Power-Line (BPL) has been touted as being the long-awaited
technology that will offer a choice beyond cable modem and Digital
Subscriber Line (DSL) for high-speed access. Others see it as
a technology that, if deployed, will interfere with the High Frequency
(HF) amateur brands and emergency communications. As in many
controversies or disputes, we believe the truth of BPL is
somewhere in between. The question is where does BPL fit?

To help weed through the pros and cons, we gave BPL deployment a
mid-term grade report. The categories, and the grades are:
. Politics A
. Self-Promotion B
. Technical Performance D
. Business Model Demonstration D
. Market Identification D
. Pilot to Implementation Transition F

Giving equal weight to each category, BPL is not failing, but it's
close. We give it a 1.67 Grade Point Average (GPA), a solid D.
What's our rationale for this grade?

Politics: A - The BPL industry has done a magnificent job in
Washington DC. The Federal Communication Commission (FCC) had endorsed
the BPL's technology despite the interference concerns. The FCC
is so anxious to promote the availability of a high-speed alternative to
cable modem and DSL technology, it appears that they have not been
completely independent when dealing with BPL issues. We cannot recall
another industry obtaining such glowing endorsements during its
development stage.

Self-Promotion: B - In the past 8 weeks, some bad BPL press has
occurred, and there has been limited response by the BPL vendors and
their proponents. The most upsetting news was the cancellation of the
Alliant Energy trial in Cedar Falls, Iowa. Despite the recent
setbacks, we continue to read positive press releases regarding
electric utility deployment plans. Recent announcements include:

. Chelan County Public Utility District (PUD), Washington
. Cinergy
. Con Edison
. Solvay New York
. Briarcliff Manor, New York

www.virchowkrause.com
Virchow, Krause & Company, LLP

In addition, BPL is being promoted by industry groups such as the
American Public Power Agency (APPA), and consultants are aggressively
promoting trials. According to the United Telecom Council (UTC), there
are 50 to 75 BPL trials on-going with an estimated paying customer
base of 2,000 taking part in these trials.

Technical Performance: D - The interference issue has not been
completely addressed. It seems that many of the pilots would rather
ignore the question rather than address the question directly. For
example, Alliant Energy prematurely ended its BPL trial in Cedar
Falls, Iowa. When the trial began, it was one of the most cooperative
between amateur radio and the electric industry. However, interference 
issues sparked the American Radio Relay League (ARRL) to file a formal 
complaint with the FCC. Shortly afterwards, the trial was ended. We 
believe that there are ways to address the interference issues, but the 
BPL industry has not been forthcoming, nor proposed cost-effective 
solutions. 

Another issue is in regard to what data rates might be realized. We
read quotes in publications that data rates of 100 Mbps or above will
be possible. Depending on BPL technology, it appears that data rates of 
500 Kbps to 10 Mbps are more likely. For further information on data 
rates and interference with BPL technologies, we recommend an article1 
in the April 2004 edition of IEEE Communications Magazine.

Business Model Demonstration: D - Some BPL consultants claim that
a utility can make a profit with a $26 per month Internet offering.
However, these numbers appear to be based upon broad assumptions of
what the hardware costs will be, not where they are today. It appears
that maintenance and operations costs are understated. In order for an
electric utility to move forward with an implementation, justification
must be made on today's cost which includes the full recovery of all
incremental operational and maintenance expenses. Addressing the 
interference issues may also add costs. Due to profitability concerns,
Progress Energy, Pepco, and other utilities may not move forward with
BPL.

Market Identification: D - As a new technology, a niche user base
or market to initial the productlife-cycle process must be established.
We have seen no evidence that the BPL industry has been able to identify 
an early adopter segment for implementation. Rather, the industry has 
pursued a shotgun approach with pilots. Identification of early adopters 
is essential for BPL to move forward.

Some discussions are centered around BPL being the solution for the
rural areas. Do the math. The required hardware at each distribution
transformer and need for frequent repeaters make rural BPL economics
difficult at best.

Pilot to Implementation Transition: F - After 24 months of trials,
there is still no full-scale deployment. The furthest along is
Manasus, VA, which has 200 customers deployed after approving
a full-scale BPL deployment in October 2003. The average BPL
deployment to date is less than 100 users. The largest trial planned
is for approximately 500 homes in Cincinnati by Cinergy. Finally, a
trial with reasonable numbers to address many of the concerns and
questions regarding BPL performance.

So, given the above, is BPL dead? No. There is interest and potential
niche applications. The promise of ubiquitous access, and ease of
deployment is of interest. Be cautious of jumping into a pilot
deployment or an implementation. BPL is not proven, and has not been
deployed in a largescale implementation. BPL technologies are not
investment grade today. Early adoptees need to be risk-takers and be
willing to accept that an investment now might need to be scrapped in
18 months.

If your community is in need of a high-speed alternative today, there
are proven, lower risk solutions available. If you are looking for a
potential next generation solution, keep abreast of BPL and other
technologies.

Power Line Channel Characteristics and Their Effect on Communication
System Design: M. Götz, M. Rapp, K. Dostert