[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Mon, 17 Nov 2003 14:59:55 EST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS..

DAY ONE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.LOCATION...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS A 
LARGE PART OF THE NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY... EAST OF A 
LINE FROM FREEDOM TO ERICK.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH THIS 
EVENING. THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST AS 
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL. MINOR WIND 
DAMAGE TO TREES. ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD 
CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA 
SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM 
SPOTTING WILL BE MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY RAPID STORM MOVEMENT... 40 MPH OR 
MORE... AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND THE 
WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
MEANWHILE... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITIES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM 
OVER NEW MEXICO... MOVING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... WILL PROVIDE 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM ARE QUITE STRONG... AND WILL CREATE A 
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 
HOWEVER... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN... WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY 
THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO 
BE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN SEVERE 
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF 
STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER... IF INSTABILITIES CAN REACH SUFFICIENT LEVELS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT... THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL... MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 
LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA COULD 
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN HIGH-WATER PRONE 
AREAS.THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE 
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. 

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY NOV 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THENWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING 
AREA...100 PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.  

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