[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND 
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS 
MORNING...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS 
A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS. DEPENDING ON HOW 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THERE COULD BE AN 
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE 
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS DURING 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMES.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS 
MORNING...AHEAD OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED 
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LARGE HAIL THE 
PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH 
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE 
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH...STRONG TO 
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND 
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING 
ACTIVITY WOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. AT THE SAME TIME...A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE A 
FOCUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER EXTREME 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY 
WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK. A CONTINUED CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PART OF OKLAHOMA AND 
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

    



--- StripMime Report -- processed MIME parts ---
multipart/alternative
  text/plain (text body -- kept)
  text/html
The reason this message is shown is because the post was in HTML
or had an attachment.  Attachments are not allowed.  To learn how
to post in Plain-Text go to: http://www.expita.com/nomime.html  ---