[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Mon, 19 May 2003 13:57:55 EDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NORMAN OK1200 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS 
NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH 
TEXAS..DAY ONE...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.LOCATION...THE SLIGHT 
RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE...TO ELK CITY...TO 
HOLLIS. THIS RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS...AND PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER 
OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO VERY DIFFICULT 
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. 
HOWEVER...BACKING WINDS AND MOISTURE POOLING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL 
OKLAHOMA...NEAR AND NORTH OF A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...COULD 
YIELD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. 
PLUS...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THE FURTHER NORTH AND 
EAST YOU GO.BY THIS EVENING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DECREASE THE CAPPING INVERSION AND 
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STORMS 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. 

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 20.PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS 
OCCURRING IN THENWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF 
SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 
TIME FRAMES.OTHER 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.   

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