[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

[arrl-ok@mailman.qth.net]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND 
SOUTHERN 
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS..
DAY ONE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF 
OKLAHOMA 
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.LOCATION...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY 
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE 
FROM RED ROCK TO ENID TO OAKWOOD AND HOLLIS.  

TIMING...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA 
SHOULD
PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON 
MAINLY 
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  STORMS ACROSS 
THIS
AREA ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
MORNING.  
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT 
HAS PUSHED 
INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA MAY ALSO HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  CONVERGENCE ALONGTHIS BOUNDARY ALONG 
WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT INMODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE RISK 
AREA.  IF STORMS 
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGINGTHUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS 
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THENWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING 
AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY GENERALLY ACROSS 
SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERNNORTH TEXAS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMSFOR 
THE REST OF OKLAHOMA.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE 
WEST COAST WILL 
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...AN 
AREA OFLOW PRESSURE 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A 
WARM FRONT EXTENDING 
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWINTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS 
POSSIBLE FARTHER 
EAST NEAR THE DRYLINE.  DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND 
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND 
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL 
BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MODERATE RISK 
AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE    



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