[ARC5] Approximate Valuation of some ARC-5 Sets

[Kenneth G. Gordon]

On 21 Apr 2010 at 6:25, Don Merz wrote:

> Dave is 100% correct--eBay is random.

Well....not quite. There is a very clear SET of cycles, 
connected with other fixed occurrences.

> Like any physical auction, the
> prices are determined by who shows up to buy. That's why you should
> never post anything for sale in August or a week before Christmas--no
> one is there!

Again, not quite. Usually the last two weeks in August are 
the BEST time to BUY anything on eBay. Most of the 
"deep-pocket" buyers are on vacation as it is just about the 
last chance they have. In fact, MOST people are gone.

SOME items go for higher prices just before Christmas as 
some folks buy things for gifts then.

> 
> I have had listings go through with say a $50 opening bid and $85
> BIN--and get no bidders. Then I relist with a $35 opening bid and no
> BIN and the bidding goes up to $120! The right people just didn't show
> up the first time it was posted.

I have found that the all around BEST opening bid is $9.95 
with NO reserve. 

Not knowing what the reserve price is turns a lot of buyers 
off, or makes them think more than once about bidding on 
an item. I.e., it pretty much precludes "impluse buying".

I have found that it is generally new sellers who ever bother 
with setting a reserve.

It is counter-productive for the seller.

> 
> Whatever. I hate eBay. But what other choice is there?

Agreed. It is a world-wide hamfest. I HATE the fact that 
they have absolutely NO buyer protection or 
support...among other things. And their web-masters keep 
"dinking" with their web pages. VERY irritating.

> When I try to
> sell on the lists, nothing sells. Then I post it on eBay for 150% of
> the price I had on the list and everything sells. Sometimes it sells
> at double the originally-listed price to list members! Figure that one
> out...

Well, for one thing, the market is much larger than on the 
lists, and for another, the buyer from the list has to compete 
against a much larger "audience".

Now, here is how I see the "pricing" cycles on eBay: 
starting with the lowest prices occuring the last two weeks, 
or the middle two weeks of August, prices slowly climb on a 
continually increasing curve, especially after "school" starts, 
until just about the last few days before Christmas, 
reaching their yearly peak then.

They fall very low around Christmas, then rise slowly from 
then until the week before or of April 15 (Care to guess 
why?).

After April 15, prices again rise because folks are more 
certain of where they stand financially, and there is the 
"refund" issue to consider too.

However, this rise in prices is very slow until just before 
graduation, when they fall again, then they slowly keep 
falling to their lowest yearly point sometime in August, 
when the cycle starts over again.

I have bought a couple of items I very much desired during 
the August "doldrums". 

One was a complete HRO-50-R1 with a STACK of coils, 
and an original rack mounted speaker/coil cabinet, all for 
under $300. It was well packed in two boxes, shipping was 
VERY reasonable, and it arrived in excellent shape.

I think it was an ex-FAA receiver.

The second was a CE-200V with original manual, for 
around $200. Again, shipping was very reasonable, and it 
arrived in excellent condition.

I was extremely happy. 

Ken W7EKB