[ARC5] What Is "Rare?

[David Stinson]

Given Bill's comments on the rarity 
of the RAT vs. radios like the RAMs,  I thought I'd comment.  
I've done some work on this concept and defined it 
in a more useful manner for my database.

The term "rare" is often understood as derived
only from the plain numbers of extant units.
In the common context, "rare" simply means 
"in great demand and very short supply;"
if there's only five of something and ten people want it, it's "rare."  

This definition isn't satisfactory in the context of collectibles,
because it isn't complete; it considers only the number 
of an item in existence.  We need to place weight 
on demand and, more important, availability.
The meaning of importance to us is not "how many of these exist,"
but "how likely am I to have the opportunity to acquire one?"
Price notwithstanding, if I start today to seek to acquire 
a certain radio for my private collection, how likely am
I to find it within a reasonable time period; say, five years?

More RATs have survived than some of the very early 
naval aircraft sets, but that's not the relevant factor.
Some are the property of public institutions like the Smithsonian;
these will never be available for the collector to acquire.
All the others known are in the hands of private collectors
who are unlikely to make them available within their lifetimes.
These RATs are thus not a "supply."
Therefore, if I set out today looking for an RAT, it's unlikely
I will find one within five years- or even twenty five.
That is what makes it "rare:" an item in demand and short supply.
It also works the other way-
for example: only ten of a unit are known to exist,
but for whatever reason, nobody wants them.
If I know where to find one, 
it will be easy for me to acquire it.  
Despite the small supply, this item is not "rare."

The illustration of RAT vs. RAM is not a good one, since
it concerns two sets on the scarce extreme of the spectrum.
Were I to use the illustration of RAT and, say, first-run
W.E. SCR-274N, we could get a better handle on the concept.
Experience shows us that three or four first-gen 274N items 
turn up on Ebay each year. That's certainly "uncommon,"
but not "rare."  The advent of Ebay has brought many sets
out of dusty barns and saved others from the dump,
but in the seven years Ebay has been going, has an RAT
ever been auctioned?  If so I missed it, and I look close.
Certainly no more than one or two, in any case.
This limited supply qualifies it as "rare" by my lights,
and the RAM as "more rare."

The "Scarcity Scale" I developed for my database
uses this as its core concept.  
An item goes up on the scale 
not as a matter of how many are know to exist, 
but on the likelihood of a collector acquiring one.

73 DE Dave AB5S