[ADXA] First Regular Tropical Weather Discussion Of The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season & We Have Quite A Bit To Discuss

Wed May 1 18:48:16 EDT 2024

Went to SSB at 125 and working into LU…there ARE stns on SSB!!!!!

Bill Priakos
10 Free Ferry Heights
Fort Smith, AR 72903
479.461.8368
[Image result for arkansas razorbacks icon]

From: BILL PRIAKOS <bpriakos at verizon.net>
Sent: Wednesday, May 1, 2024 4:55 PM
To: Bill Priakos <bill at priakos.com>
Subject: Fwd: First Regular Tropical Weather Discussion Of The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season & We Have Quite A Bit To Discuss

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From: Crown Weather Services <rlightbown at crownweather.com<mailto:rlightbown at crownweather.com>>
Date: May 1, 2024 at 2:52:51 PM CDT
To: Bill Priakos <bpriakos at verizon.net<mailto:bpriakos at verizon.net>>
Subject: First Regular Tropical Weather Discussion Of The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season & We Have Quite A Bit To Discuss
Reply-To: Crown Weather Services <rlightbown at crownweather.com<mailto:rlightbown at crownweather.com>>

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Crown Weather Services
Crown Weather Plus Weather Discussion

Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, May 1, 2024
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First Regular Tropical Weather Discussion Of The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season & We Have Quite A Bit To Discuss
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Even though tropical development is not expected for at least the next ten to fourteen days or so, there is still plenty to talk about in the first tropical weather discussion of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Late May Or Very Early June Tropical Development Possible In The Western Caribbean: It looks like late May or perhaps early June at the latest could be a time frame we could be looking at for possible tropical development over the western Caribbean.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast by guidance to reach the Caribbean during the second half of this month. This, in turn, could lead to a favorable background state and enough atmospheric vorticity to lead to tropical development in the area around the western Caribbean during late this month or at the very latest during the first part of June.

Looking at the model guidance reveals that some of the ensemble guidance seems to hint at development chances increasing a little around mid-month over the western Caribbean, although the much higher development chances reside in the eastern Pacific.

In addition, the very long range model guidance such as the CFS model is definitely hinting that the western Caribbean could be an area to really watch for tropical development near the end of this month.

This is something that I’m going to be keeping a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

[mjo]

[cfs]

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Looks Like It’s Going To Be An Extremely Active One: All indications continue to point towards the likelihood that the 2024 Hurricane Season is going to be an extremely busy one.

The latest seasonal forecast from the Canadian model CanSIPS continues to point towards extremely favorable environmental conditions for hurricane development during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. These include La Nina conditions, very warm ocean waters over the Atlantic Ocean, below average wind shear values and enhanced amounts of precipitation.

Already, we are seeing quite a bit of convection occurring today over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic into the African continent. With the potential of rising air favored over the Indian Ocean this season and the tropical Atlantic being warmer than average, I do think that there is the potential for an earlier than average Cape Verde season with tropical systems forming as early as later June into July.

Bottom line is that this looks like it’s going to be an extraordinarily active hurricane season in terms of both the number of storms (I’m still forecasting 25 Named Storms, 12 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 6 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes) and also in the amount of potential impacts across the Caribbean and along the US Coastline. I still think that the mean storm track will be further west than last year which means that the Caribbean, the southwestern North Atlantic (near the Bahamas & Florida) and the Gulf of Mexico could be at particular risk.

[2024forecast]

This Looks Like It’s Going To Be A VERY Long Hurricane Season That Could Last Well Into November & Perhaps Even Towards The Start Of December: Another thing that I’m considering and watching closely is the possibility that we could be tracking tropical storms and hurricanes well into November and perhaps even into the first part of December this year.

The reason why I think this is possible is due to the expected La Nina conditions which will likely lead to favorable conditions persisting well past the peak of the hurricane season. Past hurricane seasons with La Nina conditions have had some very notable hurricanes in the month of November and I do think we’ll see something very similar this season. The area I’m most concerned about once we get into November is going to be the central and western Caribbean where I wouldn’t be surprised to see a major hurricane occur there in November this season.

So, it’s yet another thing to keep a very close eye on going forward.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

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If you have questions regarding this discussion, do not hesitate to contact me at crownweather at gmail.com<mailto:crownweather at gmail.com>.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.
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