[ADXA] EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED)

Wed Dec 9 09:58:27 EST 2020

May have some impact today…..73

Bill Priakos
10 Free Ferry Heights
Fort Smith, AR 72903
479.461.8368
[christmas,santa]

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): Sunspot AR2790 is more potent than it looks. Yesterday (Dec. 7th @ 1632 UT), the relatively small spot unleashed a C7-class<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> solar flare and hurled a CME toward Earth. Extreme ultraviolet cameras onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion:

[https://spaceweather.com/images2020/07dec20/c7_anim_teal_strip_opt.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/07dec20/c7_anim_teal.gif>

A pulse of X-rays from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a minor shortwave radio blackout over South America (map<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/07dec20/blackoutmap.png>). Affected frequencies were mainly below 10 MHz. Ironically, the flare itself was a source of strong radio emissions. Ham radio operators may have heard a 'roar' of solar static during the blackout.

UPDATE: The explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. Coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a halo CME<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/halocmes.html> leaving the sun a few hours after the flare:

[https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/cme_c3_anim.gif]
Note: The bright 'stars' to the right of the sun are Mercury (top) and Antares (bottom)

NOAA analysts have modeled the storm cloud; their results confirm that it will likely reach Earth during the second half of Dec. 9th. En route to our planet, the CME will scoop up some slower-moving material from an unrelated solar wind stream. The combined impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G3<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g3.jpg>, although lesser G1<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g1.jpg>- to G2<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g2.jpg>-class storms are more likely.

This is NOT a major space weather event. But after 3 years of uber-quiet Solar Minimum, it is noteworthy. If a strong geomagnetic storm materializes, auroras could be sighted in northern-tier US states from Maine to Montana to Washington. Stay tuned! Aurora alerts: SMS Text<https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.

[https://spaceweather.com/site_images/current_conditions.jpg]
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Solar wind
speed: 358.8 km/sec
density: 7.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0130 UT
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X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0053 UT Dec09
24-hr: B3  0053 UT Dec09
explanation<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> | more data<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux-dynamic-plot>
Updated: Today at: 0135 UT
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Daily Sun: 08 Dec 20[https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/hmi200.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/hmi1898.gif>

Sunspot AR2790 is more potent than it looks. Yesterday, the relatively small spot unleashed a C7-class<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> solar flare and hurled a CME toward Earth. Credit: SDO/HMI
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Sunspot number: 35
What is the sunspot number?
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 07 Dec 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 206 days (60%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 08 Dec 2020

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 6.08x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/> | more data: gfx<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png>, txt<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/tci_info.txt>
Updated 08 Dec 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 90  sfu
explanation<https://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5> | more data<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif>
Updated 08 Dec 2020
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Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +8.6% High
48-hr change: +0.6%[https://spaceweather.com/cosmicrays/uparrow_orange.png]
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/10/03/cosmic-rays-are-nearing-a-space-age-maximum/> | more data<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
Updated 08 Dec 2020 @ 1700 UT

[https://spaceweather.com/images2020/27nov20/oulu.png]<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>

[https://spaceweather.com/site_images/red_left_markerline.jpg]
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Current Auroral Oval:

[https://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg]<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg>

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
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Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1  quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
explanation<https://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html> | more data
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index>
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Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.3 nT
Bz: -2.7 nT south
more data: ACE<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0130 UT
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Coronal Holes: 08 Dec 20

[https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg>
Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 9-10. Credit: SDO/AIA

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Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now and then, Earth has no noctilucent clouds.

[https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/daisy_thumb.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/current_daisy.png>

Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar

Updated at:
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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
[https://spaceweather.com/site_images/corner_sunbeams_rebuilt.png]

Updated at: 2020 Dec 08 2200 UTC

FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %

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Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, minor storm<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, severe storm<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>

Updated at: 2020 Dec 08 2200 UTC
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Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
40 %
35 %
MINOR
25 %
30 %
SEVERE
05 %
10 %

[https://spaceweather.com/site_images/spacer.gif]
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
10 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
60 %
65 %

https://spaceweather.com

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