[ADXA] Possibility of Severe Weather in Arkansas Tonight and Tomorrow Let all your friends and relatives know because the weather may appear after people are in bed asleep !!!!!

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Tuesday, November 14, 2006, 9:24 AM

Much warmer air is currently poised just south of the Arkansas border.  
This afternoon and evening, this warmer air will surge northward.  
Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system will be approaching the state.  
Thus, the stage will be set for some severe weather in Arkansas.

While there could be some storms (especially in south central and 
southeast Arkansas) this afternoon and early this evening, the main 
severe weather threat for Arkansas will begin at mid evening and 
continue through the overnight hours.  The threat should exit eastern 
Arkansas between dawn and mid morning Wednesday.

There will be a risk of tornadoes tonight.  As you move from northwest 
to southeast in the state, the greater will be the threat.  In fact, the

Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the possibility of tornadoes of 
F2 or greater intensity tonight for much of the southern third of 
Arkansas - roughly southeast of a line from Lewisville to Arkadelphia to

Sheridan to Helena-West Helena.

The way this is shaping up, the greatest tornado threat will be after 
most people have gone to bed.  Five of our last six tornado fatalities 
in Arkansas have occurred when people were asleep.  Thus, this could be 
a very dangerous situation if tornadoes do develop during the overnight 
hours.

Otherwise, there could be some large hail and damaging winds as well.  
While these could occur just about anywhere in the state, the greatest 
threat looks to be over the southern half of Arkansas.

The Storm Prediction Center has asked us to send up an extra weather 
balloon tonight at 11:30 PM so they can better gauge the severe weather 
possibilities.  Balloon releases in the middle of the night have become 
quite rare in recent years - usually only one every two or three years, 
so I think this again points up the Storm Prediction Center's concerns.

Rainfall amounts through dawn Wednesday should average 1/2 to 1 1/2 
inches in most parts of Arkansas, although somewhat smaller amounts will

probably occur in west central and southwest Arkansas.  There will 
likely be some spotty totals around 2 inches, with the greatest 
probability of these being in the northeast part of the state.

On Wednesday, an upper level low pressure center will be moving across 
Arkansas.  Hail could occur with any thunderstorms during the afternoon 
and early evening.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will be quite windy.  The air may get just

cold enough for some snow flurries in the extreme north Wednesday 
evening, but chances of this look lower than they did yesterday.

Rainfall amounts Wednesday and Wednesday night should average 1/2 to 1 
1/2 inches over the northern half of the state, with the largest totals 
closest to the Missouri border.  Totals in the southern half of Arkansas

should be less than 1/2 inch.

I will issue an update this afternoon around 3:30 PM.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk> 
 
 

Tuesday, November 14, 2006, 2:37 PM

I have very few changes to what I wrote this morning.

The primary severe weather threat should begin around mid evening and 
continue through the overnight hours.  The severe weather should exit 
eastern Arkansas by mid-morning Wednesday.

I want to emphasize again that the greatest risk of severe weather in 
Arkansas will occur after most people have gone to bed.  In such 
situations, many people are unaware of the severe weather, despite 
warnings being in effect.  Thus, the risk of injuries and fatalities is 
increased. 

There still is a possibility of at least one or two tornadoes of F2 
intensity or greater.  This will be primarily southeast of a line from 
Lewisville to Arkadelphia to Malvern to Stuttgart to Helena-West Helena.

Severe weather could occur in almost any section of the state tonight.  
However, it appears that as you move from northwest to southeast in the 
state, the greater will be the threat.

If the tornado threat fails to materialize in Arkansas, it will be 
because the better instabilities remained just a little too far to the 
south of the state.

I have no changes to Wednesday's outlook

Rainfall amounts from this evening through Wednesday evening should 
average 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches in most areas.  Totals may be a little less 
in the southwest part of the state.  Some amounts around 2 inches will 
probably occur in the northern third of the state, and there could be 
isolated totals around 3 inches.

I will issue the next message Wednesday morning by 10 AM.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk>