[50mhz] [PNWVHFS] Update Cycle 24

Sun Nov 21 19:32:08 EST 2010

The chart of predicted average sunspot numbers cannot show when upward spikes in the number of sunspots will occur. It is generally agreed that the general situation at the peak of this sunspot cycle will present an average low count. But there are times when sunspot numbers will spike upward (as well as downward). Its for these upward spikes that I will be watching closely in the coming years. I think there will be opportunities for all to experience F2 propagation, but those opportunities will likely be quite rare.

73, 
Paul, K7CW

--- On Sun, 11/21/10, Bill VanAlstyne W5WVO <w5wvo at cybermesa.net> wrote:

From: Bill VanAlstyne W5WVO <w5wvo at cybermesa.net>
Subject: Re: [50mhz] [PNWVHFS] Update Cycle 24
To: w7gj at q.com, bernhardt9025 at comcast.net
Cc: "50 MHZ Mailing List" <50mhz at mailman.qth.net>, pnwvhfs at googlegroups.com
Date: Sunday, November 21, 2010, 4:23 PM

Lance, I've read the same sad predictions you have, and I expect you are probably right, unfortunately. I suspect that 6 meters is destined to be a sporadic-E and meteor-scatter band (and for a few like you, an EME band) for most hams for a LONG time -- longer than most of us will live. And that means that unless you reside in New England or Florida, 6-meter DX is going to mean a really QUIET QTH, HIGH power, and BIG antennas (and with elevation, if you include EME in the mix).

EME-wise, from my horizon-only 6-meter station, I've managed all of three 6-meter EME QSOs with two super-stations in EU. The likelihood of my being able to put up any kind of elevation-controlled yagi array for this band is nil due to space and cost limitations. Which means that I'm stuck with a virtually prohibitive EME noise floor, the limiting factor in 6m EME work in the absence of elevation capability.

Since I'm quite a bit further south than you are, though, I'm still hoping against hope that I'll experience at least a few F2 openings in a couple or three more years. Since I didn't start on 6 meters until 2003, I've never made an F2 QSO on 6 meters; all 568 of my grids (mostly K/VE/XE) are Es and m/s. My DXCC total on 6 meters is a staggering 30 entities, almost all in the western hemisphere. LOL Working 6m DXCC is going to be a real challenge for me -- maybe even more of a challenge than FFMA, where I'm gradually sneaking up into the top half of the leader board with 466 confirmed out of 488.

Bill W5WVO

-----Original Message----- From: Lance Collister
Sent: Sunday, November 21, 2010 22:45
To: bernhardt9025 at comcast.net
Cc: 50 MHZ Mailing List ; pnwvhfs at googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [50mhz] [PNWVHFS] Update Cycle 24

Howdy Dave,

Yes, that is probably why so many more 6m stations outside the TEP zone are
gearing up for EME these days ;-) Last year, I only worked 26 different stations
from E51SIX.  However, this year, with essentially the same setup, I worked 52
stations on 6m EME from 3D2LR!

I know up here in Montana, in the last solar cycle peak, I needed to have AVERAGE
solar flux over 200 before anything would happen up here...and there were precious
few times when the flux was that high.  The more reputable forecasts for the next
solar cycle peak suggest that the flux will be considerably lower for the next
cycles, so I am not holding my breath ever working any F2 again from Montana on
6m.  However, I am having the MOST FUN EVER, working a new DXCC every month on 6m
EME ;-)  When it rains lemons, make lemonade ;-)

GL and VY 73, Lance

On 11/21/2010 5:45 AM, Dave B. wrote:
> The historical data site I have been using for solar flux moved and I found it
> again today.
> 
> Anyway, just for comparative purposes I checked previous Cycles for the monthly
> 90-day mean solar flux values. We are now 2 years and 3 months from the solar flux
> minimum. OK, for purists, it is a little different from sunspot minimum. As we go
> down memory lane . . . . .
> 
> 1956- 200
> 1966- 108
> 1978- 158
> 1988- 152
> 1999- 142
> Finally, the 90-day mean value for October is a whooping 81.7! EME anyone?
> 
> FYI de Dave
> 
> Dave Bernhardt, N7DB
> Boring, OR CN85uj
> 

-- Lance Collister, W7GJ (ex: WN3GPL, WA3GPL, WA1JXN, WA1JXN/C6A, ZF2OC/ZF8, E51SIX,
3D2LR)
P.O. Box 73
Frenchtown, MT  59834  USA
QTH: DN27UB
TEL: (406) 626-5728   URL: http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj
LIVE MESSENGER CHAT: w7gj at hotmail.com
2m DXCC #11, 6m DXCC #815

Interested in 6m EME?  Ask me about subscribing to the Magic Band EME email Google
Group!
(or click on the link at the bottom of my home web page above)
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