[2m] Why isn't 2m open?

[Jason Hsu]

I have the radio at 144.2 MHz, the calling frequency.  I don't hear a 
peep from anyone.  I don't hear a single beacon in the beacon part of 
the band (144.275-144.3 MHz).

There should be an inversion forming right now because it's now dark, 
and there is warmer air flowing above the remains of the snow cover. 
The propagation forecast map doesn't show black for my area.

Can anyone here tell me when I can expect the band to open up?  I don't 
know how to tell what minute or even what hour to expect the band to 
open up, and I don't have the discipline to listen to an empty band.

Even if I were a propagation expert, what good would it be if the band 
opened up but nobody took advantage of it?  It seems to me that bands 
with only sporadic and unpredictable openings are at the mercy of the 
competence of the operators out there.  Incompetent operators ruin 
propagation for everyone - if you know when the band will open up, it's 
all for nothing if the rest of the operators don't realize it and are 
busy doing something else.  Unfortunately, I'm part of the problem.

Jason Hsu, AA0II