[160m] 7 Day Mediumwave Propagation Outlook #2001-5

[KN4LF, Thomas Giella]

Outlook #2001-5 Published 4:00 PM EST 12/27/01 For 12/29/01-01/04/02
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

What a wild month December 2001 is turning out to be. We tentatively appear
to have reached a brand new peak in this present sunspot cycle, with the
highest monthly solar flux average, highest monthly sunspot number average,
highest daily sunspot number and third highest daily solar flux number
occurring in this month.

Sunspot region #9742 has a magnetic delta structure at the east edge of the
southern leading spot group and is capable of producing another major M5
class or higher proton solar flare.

Sunspot region #9751 has developed fairly quickly and has two magnetic delta
structures and is capable of a major M5 class or higher proton solar flare.

Sunspot region #9748 is mostly unchanged and can produce a minor M class
solar flare.

Sunspot region #9754 is mostly unchanged and can produce a minor M class
flare.

Sunspot region #'s 9743 and 9745 are quiet and stable. Sunspot region #9747
decayed slowly and quietly. Sunspot region #9752 once again decayed into a
spotless plage. Sunspot region #9753 developed slowly and quietly. Sunspot
region #9755 is quiet and stable.

New sunspot region #9756 has rotated into view at the southeast limb. New
sunspot region #9757 has rotated into view at the southeast quadrant near
the central meridian. New sunspot region #'s 9758, 9759 and 9760 have
emerged in the northeast quadrant. New sunspot region #9761 has rotated into
view at the northeast limb. Sunspot region #'s 9758 and 9759 are all
currently spotless.

As mentioned previously in outlook #4A, sunspot region #9742 produced a
major proton solar flare. This flare was a long duration M7.1/1B proton
event with associated strong type II and IV sweeps peaking at 05:35 UTC. The
above 10 MeV proton event peaked at above 700 pfu. A partial halo coronal
mass ejection was associated with the flare, it is uncertain if the fast CME
is geoeffective. If it is, then the magnetosphere could receive an impact on
December 28 or 29 causing unsettled to minor geomagnetic storming and high
latitude medium wave propagation path absorption.

I place the likelihood of an M 1-4 class solar flare at 100%, an M5 class or
higher solar flare at 80% and X1 class or higher solar flare at 30% during
the upcoming 7 day outlook period.

The current proton event will slowly trail off form it's 10+3 peak back to
10o (10MeV) or less during the next several days.

The bottom line for the next 7 days? Fairly decent stateside propagation bit
with high latitude (TA) Trans Atlantic and (TP) Trans Pacific propagation on
the broadcast band nonexistent to poor and on 160 meters poor to fair with
skewed paths. There will also be some occasional lightning induced QRN
across North America also, with a series of approaching cold fronts and
surface extra-tropical low pressure systems. Most stateside AM broadcast
band frequencies will contain co-channel North and Central/South American
stations, with either dominating at times. Remember though, a C4 or higher
class solar flare can create sudden negative variations in night time D
layer propagation absorption and an M 5 class solar flare or stronger and
conditions turn very auroral real quick.

73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF

Plant City, FL
Grid Square- EL88wx
CQ Zone 5
ITU Zone 8

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources And More:
http://www.kn4lf.com

Florida Meteorological & Climatic Institute:
http://64.176.157.9/sub/fmci.htm

Giella Website Designs:
http://www.giellawoodsignandwebsitedesigns.com


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