[160m] M7 Class Solar Flare

[KN4LF, Thomas Giella]

Per our medium wave propagation outlook #2001-4 Published 8:00 PM EST
12/20/01, the approximate 9 day period with a low background X-Ray flux
level in the C range, including virtually no solar flares above the C3 level
and a proton flux level of 10o-1 (under 10 MeV) has come to an end.

Sunspot region #9742 erupted at approximately 0535 UTC today hurling an M7
class solar flare into space and creating a temporary sun facing moderate
radio black out. The proton flux level has also increased to 10+3. It
remains to be seen just how earth directed the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
will be.

Solar flares at M5 level and above, as well as a proton flux level of above
10o can impact medium wave frequencies through increased RF signal
absorption, starting at the bottom of the broadcast band and then working up
in frequency to 160 meters, due to increased D layer ionization. Earth
directed CME's will elevate the A and K geomagnetic indices while expanding
the southward movement of the Aurora Oval, creating high latitude path
blocking and absorption. It will take the current CME approximately 2 days
to reach earth.

The bottom line? TA and TP propagation on the AM broadcast band will be
continue dismal, with "some" degraded high latitude path absorption on 160
meters, especially near sunrise and sunset. However it will also be a good
time to look for skewed propagation paths. The better equipped Amateur
Stations such as W8JI will notice the least amount of negative effect on
high latitude propagation paths. Also sunspot group #9742 is still capable
of producing a devastating X class level solar flare.

73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF

Plant City, FL
Grid Square- EL88wx
CQ Zone 5
ITU Zone 8

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources And More:
http://www.kn4lf.com



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